This paper examines methods for structural interpretation of vector autoregressions when the identifying information is regarded as imperfect or incomplete. We suggest that a Bayesian approach offers a unifying theme for guiding inference in such settings. Among other advantages, the unified approach solves a problem with calculating elasticities that appears not to have been recognized by earlier researchers. We also call attention to some computational concerns of which researchers who approach this problem using other methods should be aware. Measuring the Credit Gap , coauthored with Daniel Leff. We revisit the analysis by Drehmann and Yetman and conclude that measuring the credit gap based on the 5-year growth rate of the credit-to-GDP ratio produces a more reliable and robust predictor of financial crises than does the Hodrick-Prescott filtered series. We also conclude that estimating the credit gap based on the forecast error of a 5-year-ahead regression can be even more useful, provided a sufficiently long sample is available to estimate coefficients of the regression. A recent paper by Kilian and Zhou mischaracterizes our paper in American Economic Review and much of the related literature.
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It would be the first time two hurricanes appear in the Gulf of Mexico simultaneously, according to records dating to at least , said Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach. A hurricane watch was issued for the New Orleans metro area, which Hurricane Katrina pummeled in August The projected tracks from the U. National Hurricane Center late Saturday pointed to both storms being together in the Gulf on Monday, with Marco hitting Louisiana’s coast around midday and Laura making landfall in the same general area Wednesday.
But there was still much uncertainty surrounding the forecasts for the two storms. Laura was centered about 25 miles 40 kilometers southeast of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, late Saturday, with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph 85 kph. It was moving west-northwest at 16 mph 26 kph. Crews armed with megaphones in the Dominican capital of Santo Domingo had urged dozens of residents in flood-prone areas to evacuate before Laura’s heavy rains hit.
The storm left more than , people without water in the Dominican Republic on Saturday night, while earlier it snapped trees and knocked out power to more than , customers in neighboring Puerto Rico. It was also whipping at Haiti, which shares Hispaniola with the Dominican Republic, and forecast to move over Cuba on Sunday. Officials in the Florida Keys, which Laura might pass over on its route into the Gulf, declared a local state of emergency and issued a mandatory evacuation order for anyone living on boats, in mobile homes and in campers.
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Commentary Race and Ethnicity. Social and economic disadvantage — not only poverty, but a host of associated conditions — depresses student performance. Concentrating students with these disadvantages in racially and economically homogenous schools depresses it further. Schools that the most disadvantaged black children attend are segregated because they are located in segregated high-poverty neighborhoods, far distant from truly middle-class neighborhoods. Living in such high-poverty neighborhoods for multiple generations adds an additional barrier to achievement, and multigenerational segregated poverty characterizes many African American children today.
Education policy is constrained by housing policy: it is not possible to desegregate schools without desegregating both low-income and affluent neighborhoods. Without awareness of the history of state-sponsored residential segregation, policymakers are unlikely to take meaningful steps to understand or fulfill the constitutional mandate to remedy the racial isolation of neighborhoods, or the school segregation that flows from it.
It must be addressed primarily by improving the social and economic conditions that bring too many children to school unprepared to take advantage of what even the best schools have to offer. As these and many other disadvantages accumulate, lower social class children inevitably have lower average achievement than middle class children, even with the highest quality instruction. It is inconceivable that significant gains can be made in the achievement of black children who are so severely isolated.
This school segregation mostly reflects neighborhood segregation. In urban areas, low-income white students are more likely to be integrated into middle-class neighborhoods and less likely to attend school predominantly with other disadvantaged students. Although immigrant low-income Hispanic students are also concentrated in schools, by the third generation their families are more likely to settle in more middle-class neighborhoods.